Generalized Measures of Population Synchrony

TL;DR

This paper introduces a rigorous, mathematically grounded measure of population synchrony based on Fréchet variance, applicable across various state spaces, with algorithms and biological applications demonstrating its utility.

Contribution

It provides a new, general definition of population synchrony with desirable mathematical properties, along with algorithms and open-source tools for practical computation.

Findings

Mathematically rigorous synchrony measure based on Fréchet variance.

Algorithms for computing synchrony in finite and circular state spaces.

Application to biological data on Plasmodium parasite cycles.

Abstract

Synchronized behavior among individuals is a ubiquitous feature of populations. Understanding mechanisms of (de)synchronization demands meaningful, interpretable, computable quantifications of synchrony, relevant to measurements that can be made of dynamic populations. Despite the importance to analyzing and modeling populations, existing notions of synchrony often lack rigorous definitions, may be specialized to a particular experimental system and/or measurement, or may have undesirable properties that limit their utility. We introduce a notion of synchrony for populations of individuals occupying a compact metric space that depends on the Fr\'{e}chet variance of the distribution of individuals. We establish several fundamental and desirable mathematical properties of this synchrony measure, including continuity and invariance to metric scaling. We establish a general approximation result that controls the disparity between synchrony in the true space and the synchrony observed through a discretization of state space, as may occur when observable states are limited by measurement constraints. We develop efficient algorithms to compute synchrony in a variety of state spaces, including all finite state spaces and empirical distributions on the circle, and provide accessible implementations in an open-source Python module. To demonstrate the usefulness of the synchrony measure in biological applications, we investigate several biologically relevant models of mechanisms that can alter the dynamics of synchrony over time, and reanalyze published data concerning the dynamics of the intraerythrocytic developmental cycles of $\textit{Plasmodium}$ parasites. We anticipate that the rigorous definition of population synchrony and the mathematical and biological results presented here will be broadly useful in analyzing and modeling populations in a variety of contexts.