Occupation Life Cycle

TL;DR

This paper introduces the Occupation Life Cycle (OLC) model to analyze how occupations evolve through growth, peak, fluctuation, maturity, and decline stages, using Chinese job posting data from 2018 to 2023.

Contribution

The study develops the OLC model and applies it to real-world data, providing a systematic framework for understanding occupational trajectories within economic and technological contexts.

Findings

Occupations can be categorized into specific life cycle stages.

Emerging AI occupations are in growth or peak stages.

Traditional roles like data analysts are in maturity or decline stages.

Abstract

This paper explores the evolution of occupations within the context of industry and technology life cycles, highlighting the critical yet underexplored intersection between occupational trends and broader economic dynamics. Introducing the Occupation Life Cycle (OLC) model, we delineate five stages (i.e., growth, peak, fluctuation, maturity, and decline) to systematically explore the trajectory of occupations. Utilizing job posting data from one of China's largest recruitment platforms as a novel proxy, our study meticulously tracks the fluctuations and emerging trends in the labor market from 2018 to 2023. Through a detailed examination of representative roles, such as short video operators and data analysts, alongside emerging occupations within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, our findings allocate occupations to specific life cycle stages, revealing insightful patterns of occupational development and decline. Our findings offer a unique perspective on the interplay between occupational evolution and economic factors, with a particular focus on the rapidly changing Chinese labor market. This study not only contributes to the theoretical understanding of OLC but also provides practical insights for policymakers, educators, and industry leaders facing the challenges of workforce planning and development in the face of technological advancement and market shifts.