Spatio-temporal Patterns between ENSO and Weather-related Power Outages in the Continental United States

TL;DR

This study analyzes 24 years of data to reveal how ENSO phases influence weather-related power outages in the US, highlighting future risks due to increasing heatwaves and emphasizing the need for climate-resilient power infrastructure.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed analysis linking ENSO phases with regional power outage patterns and projects future outage risks under climate change scenarios.

Findings

Higher outage numbers during La Niña phases, especially in spring.

Projected increase in outages due to more frequent heatwaves.

Regional differences in outage patterns across the US.

Abstract

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits significant impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events and its socio-economic implications prevail on a global scale. However, a fundamental gap still exists in understanding the relationship between the ENSO and weather-related power outages in the continental United States. Through 24-year (2000-2023) composite and statistical analysis, our study reveals that higher power outage numbers (PONs) are observed from the developing winter to the decaying summer of La Ni\~na phases. In particular, during the decaying spring, high La Ni\~na intensity favors the occurrences of power outage over the west coast and east of the United States, by modulating the frequency of extreme precipitations and heatwaves. Furthermore, projected increasing heatwaves from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) indicate that spring-time PONs over the eastern United States occur about 11 times higher for the mid-term future (2041-2060) and almost 26 times higher for the long-term future (2081-2100), compared with 2000-2023. Our study provides a strong recommendation for building a more climate-resilient power system.