Interpretable Cascading Mixture-of-Experts for Urban Traffic Congestion Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces CP-MoE, a novel interpretable mixture-of-experts model that effectively captures complex spatio-temporal traffic patterns, improving congestion prediction accuracy and robustness for urban transportation systems.

Contribution

The paper presents a new cascading mixture-of-experts model with adaptive graph learners and specialized experts for stable and periodic traffic pattern recognition, enhancing prediction performance.

Findings

Outperforms state-of-the-art models on real-world datasets.

Successfully deployed in DiDi's traffic prediction system.

Improves robustness and interpretability of congestion forecasts.

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has significantly escalated traffic congestion, underscoring the need for advanced congestion prediction services to bolster intelligent transportation systems. As one of the world's largest ride-hailing platforms, DiDi places great emphasis on the accuracy of congestion prediction to enhance the effectiveness and reliability of their real-time services, such as travel time estimation and route planning. Despite numerous efforts have been made on congestion prediction, most of them fall short in handling heterogeneous and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies (e.g., periodic and non-periodic congestions), particularly in the presence of noisy and incomplete traffic data. In this paper, we introduce a Congestion Prediction Mixture-of-Experts, CP-MoE, to address the above challenges. We first propose a sparsely-gated Mixture of Adaptive Graph Learners (MAGLs) with congestion-aware inductive biases to improve the model capacity for efficiently capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies in varying traffic scenarios. Then, we devise two specialized experts to help identify stable trends and periodic patterns within the traffic data, respectively. By cascading these experts with MAGLs, CP-MoE delivers congestion predictions in a more robust and interpretable manner. Furthermore, an ordinal regression strategy is adopted to facilitate effective collaboration among diverse experts. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method compared with state-of-the-art spatio-temporal prediction models. More importantly, CP-MoE has been deployed in DiDi to improve the accuracy and reliability of the travel time estimation system.