Predicting the energetic proton flux with a machine learning regression algorithm

TL;DR

This paper introduces a machine learning regression model that predicts energetic proton flux up to one hour ahead using electron flux data, aiding real-time space weather monitoring and radiation risk assessment.

Contribution

The study presents a novel regression approach for forecasting proton flux, focusing on real-time prediction using electron flux features, which is less common than classification models.

Findings

Model accurately predicts proton flux up to 1 hour ahead.

Regression approach outperforms some existing classification models.

Useful for space mission planning and radiation monitoring.

Abstract

The need of real-time of monitoring and alerting systems for Space Weather hazards has grown significantly in the last two decades. One of the most important challenge for space mission operations and planning is the prediction of solar proton events (SPEs). In this context, artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques have opened a new frontier, providing a new paradigm for statistical forecasting algorithms. The great majority of these models aim to predict the occurrence of a SPE, i.e., they are based on the classification approach. In this work we present a simple and efficient machine learning regression algorithm which is able to forecast the energetic proton flux up to 1 hour ahead by exploiting features derived from the electron flux only. This approach could be helpful to improve monitoring systems of the radiation risk in both deep space and near-Earth environments. The model is very relevant for mission operations and planning, especially when flare characteristics and source location are not available in real time, as at Mars distance.