Topographic Visualization of Near-surface Temperatures for Improved Lapse Rate Estimation

TL;DR

This paper introduces topographic visualization methods to analyze uncertainties in near-surface temperature forecasts, revealing limitations of fixed lapse rate corrections and proposing an adaptive scheme that considers topography and weather conditions.

Contribution

It develops visualization techniques to assess temperature uncertainties and introduces an improved lapse rate model that adapts to topography and weather.

Findings

Highlight limitations of fixed lapse rate corrections

Reveal topographic dependencies of temperature uncertainties

Propose an adaptive lapse rate scheme

Abstract

Numerical model forecasts of near-surface temperatures are prone to error. This is because terrain can exert a strong influence on temperature that is not captured in numerical weather models due to spatial resolution limitations. To account for the terrain height difference between the forecast model and reality, temperatures are commonly corrected using a vertical adjustment based on a fixed lapse rate. This, however, ignores the fact that true lapse rates vary from 1.2 K temperature drop per 100 m of ascent to more than 10 K temperature rise over the same vertical distance. In this work, we develop topographic visualization techniques to assess the resulting uncertainties in near-surface temperatures and reveal relationships between those uncertainties, features in the resolved and unresolved topography, and the temperature distribution in the near-surface atmosphere. Our techniques highlight common limitations of the current lapse rate scheme and hint at their topographic dependencies in the context of the prevailing weather conditions. Together with scientists working in postprocessing and downscaling of numerical model output, we use these findings to develop an improved lapse rate scheme. This model adapts to both the topography and the current weather situation. We examine the quality and physical consistency of the new estimates by comparing them with station observations around the world and by including visual representations of radiation-slope interactions.