Large Language Models as Interpolated and Extrapolated Event Predictors

TL;DR

This paper introduces LEAP, a framework using large language models for predicting sociopolitical events from knowledge graph data, replacing traditional GNNs and RNNs with prompt-based LLM methods.

Contribution

It presents a novel prompt-based approach leveraging LLMs for event prediction, simplifying the architecture and maintaining high accuracy.

Findings

LEAP outperforms traditional models on real-world datasets.

Prompt templates effectively frame event prediction as QA tasks.

The approach simplifies event forecasting architectures.

Abstract

Salient facts of sociopolitical events are distilled into quadruples following a format of subject, relation, object, and timestamp. Machine learning methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), have been built to make predictions and infer relations on the quadruple-based knowledge graphs (KGs). In many applications, quadruples are extended to quintuples with auxiliary attributes such as text summaries that describe the quadruple events. In this paper, we comprehensively investigate how large language models (LLMs) streamline the design of event prediction frameworks using quadruple-based or quintuple-based data while maintaining competitive accuracy. We propose LEAP, a unified framework that leverages large language models as event predictors. Specifically, we develop multiple prompt templates to frame the object prediction (OP) task as a standard question-answering (QA) task, suitable for instruction fine-tuning with an encoder-decoder LLM. For multi-event forecasting (MEF) task, we design a simple yet effective prompt template for each event quintuple. This novel approach removes the need for GNNs and RNNs, instead utilizing an encoder-only LLM to generate fixed intermediate embeddings, which are processed by a customized downstream head with a self-attention mechanism to predict potential relation occurrences in the future. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets using various evaluation metrics validate the effectiveness of our approach.