Changes in mesoscale convective system precipitation structures in response to a warming climate

TL;DR

This study investigates how mesoscale convective systems' precipitation structures and frequency are projected to change in a warming climate, revealing increased precipitation intensity, volume, and shifts in convective core characteristics.

Contribution

It introduces a satellite- and radar-based tracking algorithm applied to climate model simulations to analyze MCS changes under future warming scenarios.

Findings

MCS total precipitation is underestimated in historical models.

Future MCS frequency and warm season precipitation increase, especially in the southern U.S.

Convective core regions show significant increases in size and precipitation rates.

Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will change under a warming climate. This study uses a satellite- and radar-based MCS tracking algorithm on convection-permitting climate model simulations and examines changes in MCS properties and precipitation structures between historical and future simulations. An underestimation in MCS total precipitation is evident in historical simulation compared to observations, due to model's depiction of MCS precipitation area and summertime occurrence frequency. Under pseudo-global warming, increases in MCS frequency and total warm season precipitation are observed, most notably in the southern U.S. The precipitation intensity and precipitating area generated by future MCSs also rises and results in an increase in precipitation volume. MCS precipitation structures are further classified into convective core and stratiform regions to understand how change in these structures contributes to future rainfall changes. In a warmer climate, the stratiform region demonstrates minimal change in size, but increases in mean precipitation rate and mean maximum precipitation rate by 15% and 29% are noted, respectively. A more robust future response is observed in the convective core region, with its size, mean precipitation rate and mean maximum precipitation rate increasing significantly by 24%, 37% and 42%, respectively. Finally, by examining the environmental properties of MCS initial condition, future intensification of convective rain may be attributed to a combined effect of substantial increases in atmospheric instability and moisture availability.