Centennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation in CMIP6 models shaped by Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and sea ice biases

TL;DR

This study systematically compares centennial-scale AMOC variability across multiple climate models, highlighting the influence of Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and sea ice biases, and identifying potential mechanisms driving this variability.

Contribution

First multi-model comparison of centennial AMOC variability in pre-industrial simulations, revealing key mechanisms involving Arctic sea ice and freshwater exchanges.

Findings

Six out of nine models show significant centennial AMOC variability.

Arctic-North Atlantic freshwater exchanges influence AMOC in some models.

Sea ice biases amplify AMOC variability through ocean-sea ice feedbacks.

Abstract

Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model simulations, large uncertainties remain on the magnitude and physical mechanisms driving centennial-scale AMOC variability. For these reasons, we perform, for the first time, a systematic multi-model comparison of centennial-scale AMOC variability in pre-industrial control simulations of state-of-the-art global climate models. Six out of nine models in this study exhibit a statistically significant mode of centennial-scale AMOC variability. Our results show that freshwater exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic provide a plausible driving mechanism in a subset of models, and that AMOC variability can be amplified by ocean-sea ice feedbacks in the Labrador Sea. The amplifying mechanism is linked to sea ice cover biases, which could provide an observational constraint for centennial-scale AMOC variability.