Modeling Common Cause Failure in Dynamic PRA

TL;DR

This paper introduces a dynamic model for Common Cause Failures in Probabilistic Risk Assessment, enabling time-based generation of common cause events and generalizing existing models like the Atwood model.

Contribution

It presents a novel dynamic modeling approach for CCFs using statechart formalism, adaptable to various modeling languages, and integrated into Dynamic PRA.

Findings

Model successfully generates staggered failures over time.

Implementation in statechart formalism demonstrates flexibility.

Integrated into Dynamic PRA for improved risk analysis.

Abstract

In this paper we propose a dynamic model of Common Cause Failures (CCF) that allows to generate common cause events in time. The proposed model is a generalization of Binomial Failure Rate Model (Atwood model) that can generate staggered failures of multiple components due to a common cause. We implement the model using statechart formalism, a similar implementation can be adopted in other modeling languages like Petri Nets or Hybrid Stochastic Automata. The presented model was integrated in a Dynamic PRA study.