Satellite Drag Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the effects of the May 2024 Gannon geomagnetic storm on satellite operations, highlighting prediction challenges and thermosphere density changes using satellite drag data and TLE observations.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive assessment of the storm's impact on satellite drag and the limitations of current geomagnetic index forecasts.

Findings

Poor prediction of storm magnitude and duration one day in advance.

Identification of thermosphere density enhancements through satellite drag decay.

Large-scale trends observed in TLE data during the storm.

Abstract

Between May 10-12, 2024, Earth saw its largest geomagnetic storm in over 20 years. Since the last major storm in 2003, the population of satellites in low Earth orbit has surged following the commercialization of space services and the ongoing establishment of proliferated LEO constellations. In this note, we investigate the various impacts of the geomagnetic storm on satellite operations. A forecast performance assessment of the geomagnetic index ap shows that the magnitude and duration of the storm were poorly predicted, even one day in advance. Total mass density enhancements in the thermosphere are identified by tracking satellite drag decay characteristics. A history of two-line element (TLE) data from the entire NORAD catalog in LEO is used to observe large-scale trends. Better understanding how geomagnetic storms impact satellite operations is critical for maintaining satellite safety and ensuring long-term robust sustainability in LEO.