Net Zero Averted Temperature Increase

TL;DR

This paper estimates that achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 would only slightly reduce global warming, with effects below measurement accuracy, even considering feedbacks and IPCC climate sensitivity.

Contribution

It provides feedback-free estimates of temperature increase mitigation from global and U.S. net zero CO2 emission scenarios by 2050.

Findings

U.S. net zero emissions by 2050 averts 0.0084°C warming

Global net zero emissions by 2050 averts 0.070°C warming

With feedbacks, the warming mitigation increases to 0.28°C

Abstract

Using feedback-free estimates of the warming by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and observed rates of increase, we estimate that if the United States (U.S.) eliminated net CO2 emissions by the year 2050, this would avert a warming of 0.0084 C (0.015 F), which is below our ability to accurately measure. If the entire world forced net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050, a warming of only 0.070 C (0.13 F) would be averted. If one assumes that the warming is a factor of 4 larger because of positive feedbacks, as asserted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the warming averted by a net zero U.S. policy would still be very small, 0.034 C (0.061 F). For worldwide net zero emissions by 2050 and the 4-times larger IPCC climate sensitivity, the averted warming would be 0.28 C (0.50 F).