The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the gap between green hydrogen ambitions and actual implementation, revealing significant delays, high costs, and the need for targeted policies to ensure sustainable decarbonization.

Contribution

It quantifies the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gaps, providing a comprehensive assessment of project progress, costs, and policy implications.

Findings

Only 2% of announced projects completed on schedule in 2022.

The pipeline of projects has nearly tripled to 441 GW by 2025.

Achieving 2030 goals could require up to $2.6 trillion in subsidies.

Abstract

Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors, but faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 137 projects over three years, we identify a wide 2022 implementation gap with only 2% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule. In contrast, the 2030 ambition gap towards 1.5{\deg}C scenarios is gradually closing as the announced project pipeline has nearly tripled to 441 GW within three years. However, we estimate that, without carbon pricing, realising all these projects would require global subsidies of \$1.6 trillion (\$1.2 - 2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies. Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity. Policy support needs to secure hydrogen investments, but should focus on applications where hydrogen is indispensable.