Atmospheric Centers of Action: current features and expected changes from simulations with CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

TL;DR

This study analyzes current and projected future features of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in both hemispheres using climate model simulations, comparing them with reanalysis data and assessing changes under high-emission scenarios.

Contribution

It evaluates the ability of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to simulate ACA features and projects their future changes under RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Findings

ACAs show seasonal and hemispheric variability in intensity.

Models project significant ACA changes in the 21st century, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.

Weakening trends are observed over continents, notably in North America and Asia.

Abstract

The results of an analysis of changes in the characteristics of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in the Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) hemispheres using results of simulations with the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles of climate models are presented. The ability of models to simulate ACA features is estimated for the historical scenario in comparison with ERA5 reanalysis data. The projected changes are evaluated under RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, respectively. The ACA intensity is evaluated that defined as the difference in sea level pressure averaged over the ACA region and the entire hemisphere. In NH, reanalysis and models show greater intensity of subtropical oceanic anticyclonic ACAs in summer than in winter. The opposite is found for the intensity of NH subpolar oceanic cyclonic ACAs. The interannual variability of the ACA intensity in winter is generally greater than in summer. In SH, the season with greater intensity of oceanic anticyclonic and cyclonic ACAs and its interannual variability varies from ocean to ocean. CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show substantial changes of ACAs characteristics in the XXI century. More significant trends in the strengthening of ACAs in the 21st century appear in the SH, especially in the winter seasons. The most consistent weakening trends are found over continents for winter North American maximum and the summer Asian minimum. For the winter Siberian maximum, the weakening trend is found more pronounced in CMIP6 models than in CMIP5.