Bistability in the sunspot cycle

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that the sunspot cycle can be modeled as a stochastically forced bistable oscillator, revealing bistability and suggesting stochastic resonance as a key mechanism influencing solar magnetic activity and extreme events.

Contribution

It introduces a novel stochastic bistable oscillator model for the sunspot cycle, linking planetary influences and internal turbulence to solar magnetic phenomena.

Findings

Sunspot series exhibits bistability.

Modeling as a stochastic bistable oscillator explains cycle dynamics.

Stochastic resonance may amplify planetary effects on the sun.

Abstract

A direct dynamical test of the sunspot-cycle is carried out which indicates that a stochastically forced non-linear oscillator characterizes its dynamics. The sunspot series is then decomposed into its eigen time-delay coordinates. The analysis of these coordinates reveals that the sunspot series exhibits bistability, and suggests the possibility of modeling the solar cycle as a stochastically and periodically forced bistable oscillator, accounting for the Poloidal and Toroidal modes of the solar magnetic field. Such a representation of the sunspot series in terms of stochastic bistable dynamical system enables us to conjecture stochastic resonance as the key mechanism in amplifying the planetary influence of Jupiter on the sun, and that extreme events, due to turbulent convection noise inside the sun, dictate crucial phases of the sunspot cycle, such as the Maunder minimum.