Estimation of Global Building Stocks by 2070: Unlocking Renovation Potential

TL;DR

This paper introduces GLOBUS, a global building stock model that estimates future building stocks and renovation potential up to 2070, aiding efforts toward building carbon neutrality.

Contribution

The paper develops and applies the GLOBUS model to project global building stocks and renovation potential, filling data gaps and enabling scenario analysis.

Findings

Developed GLOBUS model for global building stock estimation.

Projected stock growth in developing economies by 2070.

Identified renovation potential to reduce future stock growth.

Abstract

Buildings produce one-third of carbon emissions globally, however, data absence regarding global floorspace poses challenges in advancing building carbon neutrality. We compile the measured building stocks for 14 major economies and apply our global building stock model, GLOBUS, to evaluate future trends in stock turnover. Based on a scenario not considering renovation, by 2070 the building stock in developed economies will be ~1.4 times that of 2020 (100 billion m2); in developing economies it is expected to be 2.2 times that of 2020 (313 billion m2). Based on a techno-economic potential scenario, however, stocks in developed economies will decline to approximately 0.8 times the 2020 level, while stocks in developing economies will increase to nearly twice the 2020 level due to their fewer buildings currently. Overall, GLOBUS provides a way of calculating the global building stock, helping scientists, engineers, and policymakers conduct a range of investigation across various future scenarios.