Censorship in Democracy
Marcel Caesmann, Janis Goldzycher, Matteo Grigoletto, Lorenz, Gschwent

TL;DR
This study evaluates the effectiveness of the EU's ban on Russian state media by analyzing Twitter data, finding short-term reductions in pro-Russian content that quickly revert, with evidence of propaganda countermeasures.
Contribution
It provides empirical evidence on the immediate and short-lived impact of censorship on online propaganda and highlights adaptive strategies by propagandists.
Findings
Short-term decrease in pro-Russian slant among targeted users
Slant levels return to pre-ban levels within two weeks
Propaganda outlets actively counteract bans by increasing activity
Abstract
The spread of propaganda, misinformation, and biased narratives from autocratic regimes, especially on social media, is a growing concern in many democracies. Can censorship be an effective tool to curb the spread of such slanted narratives? In this paper, we study the European Union's ban on Russian state-led news outlets after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We analyze 775,616 tweets from 133,276 users on Twitter/X, employing a difference-in-differences strategy. We show that the ban reduced pro-Russian slant among users who had previously directly interacted with banned outlets. The impact is most pronounced among users with the highest pre-ban slant levels. However, this effect was short-lived, with slant returning to its pre-ban levels within two weeks post-enforcement. Additionally, we find a detectable albeit less pronounced indirect effect on users who had not directly…
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Taxonomy
TopicsSoutheast Asian Sociopolitical Studies · Historical and Contemporary Political Dynamics · Race, History, and American Society
