Is local opposition taking the wind out of the energy transition?

TL;DR

This study investigates whether local opposition to wind turbine installations affects electoral support for regional governments, finding no significant NIMBY-related electoral backlash in southern Italy.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on the electoral impact of wind turbine installations using administrative and electoral data with an instrumental variable approach.

Findings

No significant electoral backlash for right-wing administrations.

Significant positive reinforcement for left-wing administrations.

NIMBY behavior does not appear to influence electoral outcomes.

Abstract

Local opposition to the installation of renewable energy sources is a potential threat to the energy transition. Local communities tend to oppose the construction of energy plants due to the associated negative externalities (the so-called 'not in my backyard' or NIMBY phenomenon) according to widespread belief, mostly based on anecdotal evidence. Using administrative data on wind turbine installation and electoral outcomes across municipalities located in the South of Italy during 2000-19, we estimate the impact of wind turbines' installation on incumbent regional governments' electoral support during the next elections. Our main findings, derived by a wind-speed based instrumental variable strategy, point in the direction of a mild and not statistically significant electoral backlash for right-wing regional administrations and of a strong and statistically significant positive reinforcement for left-wing regional administrations. Based on our analysis, the hypothesis of an electoral effect of NIMBY type of behavior in connection with the development of wind turbines appears not to be supported by the data.