Do Cure Violence Programs Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from New York City

TL;DR

This study evaluates the impact of Cure Violence programs in NYC, finding a 14% reduction in shootings and significant social benefits, using rigorous statistical methods over a 17-year period.

Contribution

It provides the first causal evidence of Cure Violence effectiveness in NYC, demonstrating substantial reductions in gun violence and economic benefits.

Findings

14% reduction in shootings associated with Cure Violence

Evidence of spillover effects into nearby areas

Estimated 1,300 shootings avoided and $2.45 billion social surplus

Abstract

Cure Violence is a community violence intervention program that aims to reduce gun violence by mediating conflicts, "treating" high-risk individuals, and changing community norms. Using NYC shootings data from 2006-2023, we assess the efficacy of Cure Violence using both difference-in-differences and event study models. We find that, on average, Cure Violence is associated with a 14% reduction in shootings relative to the counterfactual. This association persists in the years after treatment, neither increasing nor decreasing much over time. We exploit variation in the geography and timing of Cure implementation to argue against alternative explanations. Additionally, we find suggestive evidence of spillover effects into nearby precincts, as well as increasing returns to opening new Cure programs. Interpreted causally, our results imply that around 1,300 shootings were avoided between 2012-2023 due to Cure -- generating a net social surplus of $2.45 billion and achieving a benefit-cost ratio of 6.5:1.