Amplified Summer Wind Stilling and Land Warming Compound Energy Risks in Northern Midlatitudes

TL;DR

This study uses climate simulations to show that summer wind stilling and land warming in Northern Midlatitudes could significantly increase energy risks by reducing wind energy potential and boosting cooling demand, complicating future energy planning.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive analysis of seasonal wind changes and their energy implications under high-emission climate scenarios in Northern Midlatitudes.

Findings

Summer wind stilling up to ~15% in Northern Midlatitudes.

Warming-induced wind stilling linked to amplified land and troposphere warming.

Potential early disruption of energy supply-demand balance due to combined wind stilling and increased cooling demand.

Abstract

Wind energy plays a critical role in mitigating climate change and meeting growing energy demands. However, the long-term impacts of anthropogenic warming on wind resources, particularly their seasonal variations and potential compounding risks, remain understudied. Here we analyze large-ensemble climate simulations in high-emission scenarios to assess the projected changes in near-surface wind speed and their broader implications. Our analyses show robust wind changes including a decrease of wind speed (i.e., stilling) up to ~15% during the summer months in Northern Midlatitudes. This stilling is linked to amplified warming of the midlatitude land and the overlying troposphere. Despite regional and model uncertainties, robust signals of warming-induced wind stilling will likely emerge from natural climate variations in the late 21st century of the high-emission scenarios. Importantly, the summertime wind stilling coincides with a projected surge in cooling demand, and their compounding may disrupt the energy supply-demand balance earlier. These findings highlight the importance of considering the seasonal responses of wind resources and the associated climate-energy risks in a warming climate. By integrating these insights into future energy planning decisions, we can better adapt to a changing climate and ensure a reliable and resilient energy future.