Data-Driven Personalized Energy Consumption Range Estimation for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Urban Traffic

TL;DR

This paper presents a data-driven method using Conformalized Quantile Regression to predict fuel consumption intervals for PHEVs in urban traffic, accounting for driver behavior variability and uncertainty.

Contribution

It introduces a novel CQR-based model that provides prediction intervals for energy consumption, integrating driver behavior data and synthetic simulations.

Findings

CQR effectively captures fuel consumption variability.

The model outperforms baseline prediction interval methods.

Driver behavior significantly influences energy consumption predictions.

Abstract

In urban traffic environments, driver behaviors exhibit considerable diversity in vehicle operation, encompassing a range of acceleration and braking maneuvers as well as adherence to traffic regulations, such as speed limits. It is well-established that these intrinsic driving behaviors significantly influence vehicle energy consumption. Therefore, establishing a quantitative relationship between driver behavior and energy usage is essential for identifying energy-efficient driving practices and optimizing routes within urban traffic. This study introduces a data-driven approach to predict the equivalent fuel consumption of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) based on an integrated model of driver behavior and vehicle energy consumption. Unlike traditional models that provide point predictions of fuel consumption, this approach uses Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) to offer prediction intervals that capture the variability and uncertainty in fuel consumption. These intervals reflect changes in fuel consumption, as well as variations in driver behavior, and vehicle and route conditions. To develop this model, driver-specific data were collected through a driver-in-the-loop simulator, which tested different human drivers responses. The CQR model was then trained and validated using the experimental data from the driver-in-the-loop simulator, augmented by the synthetic data generated from Monte Carlo simulations conducted using a calibrated microscopic driver behavior and vehicle energy model. The CQR model was evaluated by comparing its predictions of equivalent fuel consumption intervals with those of baseline prediction interval methods that rely solely on conformal prediction.