Melancholia States of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

TL;DR

This paper investigates the unstable Melancholia state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation using a general circulation model, revealing its properties and role in climate tipping points.

Contribution

It constructs and analyzes the Melancholia state as a saddle point, providing insights into the physical mechanisms and predictability of AMOC transitions.

Findings

Melancholia state lies between stable regimes in properties.

It features a colder, fresher deep Atlantic Ocean.

Has higher dynamic enthalpy indicating higher potential energy.

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic impacts. In this paper we investigate the global stability properties of the system using an ocean general circulation model. We construct an unstable AMOC state, i.e., an unstable solution of the flow that resides between the stable regimes of a vigorous and collapsed AMOC. Such a solution, also known as a Melancholia or edge state, is a dynamical saddle embedded in the boundary separating the competing basins of attraction. It is physically relevant since it lies on the most probable path of a noise-induced transition between the two stable regimes, and because tipping occurs when one of the attractors and the Melancholia state collide. Its properties may thus give hints towards physical mechanisms and predictability of the critical transition. We find that while the AMOC Melancholia state as viewed from its upper ocean properties lies between the vigorous and collapsed regimes, it is characterized by an Atlantic deep ocean that is fresher and colder compared to both stable regimes. The Melancholia state has higher dynamic enthalpy than either stable state, representing a state of higher potential energy that is in good agreement with the dynamical landscape view on metastability.