Through energy droughts: hydropower's ability to sustain a high output

TL;DR

This study assesses Swedish hydropower's capacity to maintain high output during energy droughts, revealing significant potential and regulatory impacts, and emphasizing the need for advanced modeling in energy planning.

Contribution

It provides detailed estimates of hydropower's sustained output during droughts and highlights regulatory effects, offering new insights for policy and modeling approaches.

Findings

Swedish hydropower can sustain 67-92% of capacity for 3 weeks.

Regulations on river flows limit maximum sustained output.

Findings inform policy and challenge simplified energy system models.

Abstract

Previous research has raised concerns about energy droughts in renewables-based energy systems. This study explores the ability of reservoir hydropower to sustain a high output and, thereby, mitigate such energy droughts. Using detailed modelling, we estimate that Swedish hydropower can sustain 67-92% of its installed capacity for 3 weeks, with higher values possible in springtime. The variation of the sustained output, equivalent to the capacity of 3-4 Swedish nuclear reactors, under-scores the importance of understanding the potential output levels when devising strategies to counteract energy droughts. Moreover, we find that regulations imposed on the flows in river bottlenecks hinder higher sustained output levels. With the upcoming renewal of environmental permits for hydropower plants in Sweden, these findings provide valuable insights for policymakers. Furthermore, the sustained output capabilities demonstrated in this study challenge the prevalent simplified representations of hydropower in energy models, suggesting a need for more-sophisticated modelling approaches.