A machine learning framework for interpretable predictions in patient pathways: The case of predicting ICU admission for patients with symptoms of sepsis

TL;DR

This paper introduces PatWay-Net, an interpretable machine learning framework that predicts ICU admission for sepsis patients, outperforming standard models and providing visual insights for clinicians.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel recurrent neural network combined with perceptrons for interpretable patient pathway analysis, enhancing prediction accuracy and clinical utility.

Findings

PatWay-Net outperforms decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting in predictive accuracy.

The framework provides visual dashboards for patient trajectories and risk assessment.

Clinicians validated the model's usefulness through structured interviews.

Abstract

Proactive analysis of patient pathways helps healthcare providers anticipate treatment-related risks, identify outcomes, and allocate resources. Machine learning (ML) can leverage a patient's complete health history to make informed decisions about future events. However, previous work has mostly relied on so-called black-box models, which are unintelligible to humans, making it difficult for clinicians to apply such models. Our work introduces PatWay-Net, an ML framework designed for interpretable predictions of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients with symptoms of sepsis. We propose a novel type of recurrent neural network and combine it with multi-layer perceptrons to process the patient pathways and produce predictive yet interpretable results. We demonstrate its utility through a comprehensive dashboard that visualizes patient health trajectories, predictive outcomes, and associated risks. Our evaluation includes both predictive performance - where PatWay-Net outperforms standard models such as decision trees, random forests, and gradient-boosted decision trees - and clinical utility, validated through structured interviews with clinicians. By providing improved predictive accuracy along with interpretable and actionable insights, PatWay-Net serves as a valuable tool for healthcare decision support in the critical case of patients with symptoms of sepsis.