Modelo de la inflaci\'on en Costa Rica

TL;DR

This paper compares univariate ARIMA models and multivariate Phillips curve models to predict inflation in Costa Rica, highlighting the importance of accurate inflation modeling for economic stability.

Contribution

It provides a comparative analysis of ARIMA and Phillips curve models for inflation prediction specific to Costa Rica.

Findings

ARIMA models offer accurate short-term inflation forecasts.

Phillips curve models incorporate economic theory for broader insights.

Model performance varies with economic conditions.

Abstract

The stability of the inflation rate is a necessary condition for the proper functioning of any capitalist economy. In an economic environment with volatile inflation, the growth of the economy and its distribution among the agents of society is compromised. For this reason, and because in Costa Rica, as in most capitalist nations, the monetary authority is in charge of maintaining price stability, it is necessary to have models capable of predicting the behavior of inflation. on in the country. Along these lines, this work aims to compare two of the main types of basic predictive models found in the literature: univariate autoregressive models, exemplified by ARIMA models, and multivariate models formulated based on the theory. economics, like the Phillips curve.