Contrasting chaotic and stochastic forcing: tipping windows and attractor crises

TL;DR

This paper compares the effects of chaotic versus stochastic forcing on nonlinear systems, identifying conditions for tipping points and bifurcations, and introduces the concept of a chaotic tipping window near bifurcations.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of a chaotic tipping window and analyzes how chaotic forcing differs from stochastic forcing in causing system transitions.

Findings

Chaotic forcing can create a tipping window outside of which transitions are impossible.

Tipping can be linked to boundary crises and saddle-node bifurcations in non-autonomous systems.

An example with a bistable map illustrates complex bifurcation structures and tipping dynamics.

Abstract

Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are small or slow. Noise-induced tipping can occur where extremes of the forcing causes the system to leave one attractor and transition to another. If this noise corresponds to unresolved chaotic forcing, there is a limit such that this can be approximated by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and the statistics of large deviations determine the transitions. Away from this limit it makes sense to consider tipping in the presence of chaotic rather than stochastic forcing. In general we argue that close to a parameter value where there is a bifurcation of the unforced system, there will be a chaotic tipping window outside of which tipping cannot happen, in the limit of asymptotically slow change of that parameter. This window is trivial for a stochastically forced system. Entry into the chaotic tipping window can be seen as a boundary crisis/non-autonomous saddle-node bifurcation and corresponds to an exceptional case of the forcing, typically by an unstable periodic orbit. We discuss an illustrative example of a chaotically forced bistable map that highlight the richness of the geometry and bifurcation structure of the dynamics in this case. If a parameter is changing slowly we note there is a dynamic tipping window that can also be determined in terms of unstable periodic orbits.