Real Time Monitoring and Forecasting of COVID 19 Cases using an Adjusted Holt based Hybrid Model embedded with Wavelet based ANN

TL;DR

This paper introduces a hybrid forecasting model combining Holt's method, wavelet-based ANN, and adjustments, to improve COVID-19 case predictions and aid resource allocation.

Contribution

It proposes a novel hybrid model embedded with wavelet-based ANN and an adjustment algorithm, outperforming traditional ARIMA and LSTM models in COVID-19 case forecasting.

Findings

The hybrid model shows superior forecast accuracy over ARIMA and LSTM.

The model effectively predicts COVID-19 cases in country and hotspot states.

The approach aids in better healthcare resource planning.

Abstract

Since the inception of the SARS - CoV - 2 (COVID - 19) novel coronavirus, a lot of time and effort is being allocated to estimate the trajectory and possibly, forecast with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to the same. The model proposed in this paper is a mindful step in the same direction. The primary model in question is a Hybrid Holt's Model embedded with a Wavelet-based ANN. To test its forecasting ability, we have compared three separate models, the first, being a simple ARIMA model, the second, also an ARIMA model with a wavelet-based function, and the third, being the proposed model. We have also compared the forecast accuracy of this model with that of a modern day Vanilla LSTM recurrent neural network model. We have tested the proposed model on the number of confirmed cases (daily) for the entire country as well as 6 hotspot states. We have also proposed a simple adjustment algorithm in addition to the hybrid model so that daily and/or weekly forecasts can be meted out, with respect to the entirety of the country, as well as a moving window performance metric based on out-of-sample forecasts. In order to have a more rounded approach to the analysis of COVID-19 dynamics, focus has also been given to the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, $R_0$ using a compartmental epidemiological model (SIR). Lastly, we have also given substantial attention to estimating the shelf-life of the proposed model. It is obvious yet noteworthy how an accurate model, in this regard, can ensure better allocation of healthcare resources, as well as, enable the government to take necessary measures ahead of time.