Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity

TL;DR

This paper estimates that to prevent declines in US agricultural productivity due to climate change by 2050, public R&D investment must grow annually by 5.2-7.8%, requiring an additional $208-$434 billion.

Contribution

It quantifies the necessary scale of public R&D investment growth to offset climate impacts on US agriculture, highlighting the urgency and magnitude of funding needed.

Findings

Offsetting climate impacts requires 5.2-7.8% annual R&D growth.

Additional investment of $208-$434 billion needed by 2050.

Substantial R&D funding increases are comparable to post-World War periods.

Abstract

Increasing agricultural productivity is a gradual process with significant time lags between research and development (R&D) investment and the resulting gains. We estimate the response of US agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to both R&D investment and weather, and quantify the public R&D spending required to offset the emerging impacts of climate change. We find that offsetting the climate-induced productivity slowdown by 2050 alone requires a sustained public R&D spending growth of 5.2-7.8% per year over 2021-2050. This amounts to an additional $208-$434B investment over this period. These are substantial requirements comparable to the public R&D spending growth that followed the two World Wars.