Is it getting harder to make a hit? Evidence from 65 years of US music chart history
Marta Ewa Lech, Sune Lehmann, Jonas L. Juul

TL;DR
This study analyzes 65 years of Billboard Hot 100 data, revealing significant changes in song longevity, artist diversity, and chart dynamics, indicating evolving patterns in music consumption and hit-making over time.
Contribution
It provides the first comprehensive quantitative analysis of long-term trends in music chart dynamics and artist representation using historical Billboard data.
Findings
Top-1 songs now stay on the chart three times longer than in the 1960s.
Fewer new artists enter the chart in recent years, with established artists dominating.
Historical song trajectories form distinct archetypes linked to specific eras.
Abstract
Since the creation of the Billboard Hot 100 music chart in 1958, the chart has been a window into the music consumption of Americans. Which songs succeed on the chart is decided by consumption volumes, which can be affected by consumer music taste, and other factors such as advertisement budgets, airplay time, the specifics of ranking algorithms, and more. Since its introduction, the chart has documented music consumerism through eras of globalization, economic growth, and the emergence of new technologies for music listening. In recent years, musicians and other hitmakers have voiced their worry that the music world is changing: Many claim that it is getting harder to make a hit but until now, the claims have not been backed using chart data. Here we show that the dynamics of the Billboard Hot 100 chart have changed significantly since the chart's founding in 1958, and in particular in…
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Taxonomy
TopicsMusic History and Culture · Sports Analytics and Performance · Diverse Musicological Studies
