China's plug-in hybrid electric vehicle transition: an operational carbon perspective

TL;DR

This study quantifies real-world energy use and CO2 emissions of China's top-selling PHEVs from 2020 to 2022, revealing higher-than-expected emissions and regional variations to inform decarbonization policies.

Contribution

It introduces a bottom-up model to measure actual energy consumption and emissions of PHEVs across China, providing detailed regional and national benchmarks.

Findings

Actual electricity and gasoline intensities are significantly higher than standard cycle values.

Regional energy use varies, with Southern China showing double the energy consumption of Northern China.

PHEVs emitted 4.7 megatons of CO2 from 2020 to 2022, highlighting substantial emissions from electricity and gasoline.

Abstract

Assessing the emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) operations is crucial for accelerating the carbon-neutral transition in the passenger car sector. This study is the first to adopt a bottom-up model to measure the real-world energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of China's top twenty selling PHEV models across different regions from 2020 to 2022. The results indicate that (1) the actual electricity intensity of the best-selling PHEV models (20.2-38.2 kWh/100 km) was 30-40% higher than the New European Driving Cycle values, and the actual gasoline intensity (4.7-23.5 L/100 km) was 3-6 times greater than the New European Driving Cycle values. (2) The overall energy use of the best-selling models varied among different regions, and the energy use from 2020 to 2022 in Southern China was double that Northern China and the Yangtze River Middle Reach. (3) The top-selling models emitted 4.7 megatons of carbon dioxide nationwide from 2020 to 2022, with 1.9 megatons released by electricity consumption and 2.8 megatons released by gasoline combustion. Furthermore, targeted policy implications for expediting the carbon-neutral transition within the passenger car sector are proposed. In essence, this study explores and compares benchmark data at both the national and regional levels, along with performance metrics associated with PHEV operations. The main objective is to aid nationwide decarbonization efforts, focusing on carbon reduction and promoting the rapid transition of road transportation toward a net-zero carbon future.