Machine learning disentangles bias causes of shortwave cloud radiative effect in a climate model

TL;DR

This study uses machine learning to identify and quantify the specific cloud parameters causing biases in the shortwave cloud radiative effect in climate models, revealing regional and parameter-specific contributions.

Contribution

It introduces a random forest surrogate model to dissect individual cloud parameter biases affecting SWCRE in climate models, enhancing understanding of cloud-climate interactions.

Findings

Global SWCRE bias is mainly due to cloud fraction and water paths.

Regionally, biases vary with climate regimes, affecting land and ocean differently.

Machine learning helps diagnose complex cloud-climate interactions.

Abstract

Large bias exists in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) of general circulation models (GCMs), attributed mainly to the combined effect of cloud fraction and water contents, whose representations in models remain challenging. Here we show an effective machine-learning approach to dissect the individual bias of relevant cloud parameters determining SWCRE. A surrogate model for calculating SWCRE was developed based on random forest using observations and FGOALS-f3-L simulation data of cloud fraction (CFR), cloud-solar concurrence ratio (CSC), cloud liquid and ice water paths (LWP and IWP), TOA upward clear-sky solar flux (SUC), and solar zenith angle. The model, which achieves high determination coefficient > 0.96 in the validation phase, was then used to quantify SWCRE bias associated with these parameters following the partial radiation perturbation method. The global-mean SWCRE bias (in W m-2) is contributed by CFR (+5.11), LWP (-6.58), IWP (-1.67), and CSC (+4.38), while SUC plays a minor role; the large CSC contribution highlights the importance of cloud diurnal variation. Regionally, the relative importance varies according to climate regimes. In Tropics, overestimated LWP and IWP exist over lands, while oceans exhibit underestimated CFR and CSC. In contrast, the extratropical lands and oceans have, respectively, too-small CSC and the 'too few, too bright' low-level clouds. We thus suggest that machine learning, in addition for developing GCM physical parameterizations, can also be utilized for diagnosing and understanding complex cloud-climate interactions.