Impact of stellar population synthesis choices on forward modelling-based redshift distribution estimates

TL;DR

This study investigates how different choices in stellar population synthesis models affect the accuracy of galaxy redshift distribution estimates in forward modelling, revealing significant biases that challenge upcoming survey precision requirements.

Contribution

It provides a sensitivity analysis of SPS model choices on redshift distribution estimates, highlighting key biases from specific model components.

Findings

IMF, AGN, gas physics, and attenuation law choices bias redshift distributions

Biases exceed Stage IV survey precision requirements

Variations impact mean and scatter of redshift estimates

Abstract

The forward modelling of galaxy surveys has recently gathered interest as one of the primary methods to achieve the required precision on the estimate of the redshift distributions for stage IV surveys. One of the key aspects of forward modelling a galaxy survey is the connection between the physical properties drawn from a galaxy population model and the intrinsic SEDs, achieved through SPS codes (e.g. FSPS). However, SPS requires a large number of detailed assumptions on the constituents of galaxies, for which the model choice or parameter values are currently uncertain. In this work, we perform a sensitivity study of the impact that the variations of the SED modelling choices have on the mean and scatter of the tomographic galaxy redshift distributions. We assumed the Prospector beta model as the fiducial input galaxy population model and used its SPS parameters to build 9 bands magnitudes of a fiducial sample of galaxies. We then built samples of galaxy magnitudes by varying one SED modelling choice at a time. We modelled the colour redshift relation of these galaxy samples using the SOM approach. We placed galaxies in the SOM cells according to their observed frame colours and used their cell assignment to build colour selected tomographic bins. Finally, we compared each variant's binned redshift distributions against the estimates obtained for the fiducial model. We find that the SED components related to the IMF, AGNs, gas physics, and the attenuation law substantially bias the mean and the scatter of the tomographic redshift distributions with respect to those estimated with the fiducial model. Regardless of the applied stellar mass function based re-weighting strategy, the bias in the mean and the scatter of the tomographic redshift distributions are greater than the precision requirements set by next-generation Stage IV galaxy surveys, such as LSST and Euclid.