Validation of EUHFORIA cone and spheromak Coronal Mass Ejection Models

TL;DR

This study validates EUHFORIA's cone and spheromak CME models by comparing simulated and observed data, demonstrating their effectiveness in predicting CME arrival times and geomagnetic impacts for space weather forecasting.

Contribution

The paper provides a comprehensive validation of EUHFORIA's CME models using extensive datasets, confirming their accuracy in real-time space weather prediction.

Findings

Arrival time predictions have an RMSE of 9 hours.

75% probability of detection within 12 hours.

Geomagnetic impact forecast accuracy varies from 31% to 69%.

Abstract

Aims. We present the validation results for arrival times and geomagnetic impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), using the cone and spheromak CME models implemented in EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). Validating numerical models is crucial in ensuring their accuracy and performance with respect to real data. Methods. We compare CME plasma and magnetic field signatures, measured in situ by satellites at the L1 point, with the simulation output of EUHFORIA. The validation of this model was carried out by using two datasets in order to ensure a comprehensive evaluation. The first dataset focuses on 16 CMEs that arrived at the Earth, offering specific insights into the model's accuracy in predicting arrival time and geomagnetic impact. Meanwhile, the second dataset encompasses all CMEs observed over eight months within Solar Cycle 24, regardless of whether they arrived at Earth, covering periods of both solar minimum and maximum activity. This second dataset enables a more comprehensive evaluation of the model's predictive precision in term of CME arrivals and misses. Results. Our results show that EUHFORIA provides good estimates in terms of arrival times, with root mean square errors (RMSE) values of 9 hours. Regarding the number of correctly predicted ICME arrivals and misses, we find a 75% probability of detection in a 12 hours time window and 100% probability of detection in a 24 hours time window. The geomagnetic impact forecasts, measured by the $K_p$ index, provide different degrees of accuracy, ranging from 31% to 69%. These results validate the use of cone and spheromak CMEs for real-time space weather forecasting.