Decision-Dependent Uncertainty-Aware Distribution System Planning Under Wildfire Risk

TL;DR

This paper introduces a decision-dependent uncertainty methodology for distribution system planning that accounts for wildfire risk, optimizing investments to reduce failure likelihood under wildfire-prone conditions.

Contribution

It presents a novel DDU-aware approach that integrates wildfire risk into distribution system investment planning, improving decision accuracy and system resilience.

Findings

Modeling DDU improves investment decision quality.

Optimized upgrades enhance wildfire resilience.

Method reduces expected failure costs.

Abstract

The interaction between power systems and wildfires can be dangerous and costly. Damaged structures, load shedding, and high operational costs are potential consequences when the grid is unprepared. In fact, the operation of distribution grids can be liable for the outbreak of wildfires when extreme weather conditions arise. Within this context, investment planning should consider the impact of operational actions on the uncertainty related to wildfires that can directly affect line failure likelihood. Neglecting this can compromise the cost-benefit evaluation in planning system investments for wildfire risk. In this paper, we propose a decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) aware methodology that provides the optimal portfolio of investments for distribution systems while considering that high power-flow levels through line segments in high-threat areas can ignite wildfires and, therefore, increase the probability of line failures. The methodology identifies the best combination of system upgrades (installation of new lines, hardening existing lines, and placement of switching devices) to provide the necessary leeway to operate the distribution system under wildfire-prone conditions. Our case study demonstrates that by modeling the DDU relationship between power flow prescriptions and line failures, investment decisions are more accurate and better prepare the grid infrastructure to deal with wildfire risk.