The big bang of an epidemic

TL;DR

This paper introduces a mathematical framework to identify the origin and spread pattern of epidemics using limited data, validated by COVID-19 and H1N1 case studies, revealing a universal contagion geometry.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach combining epidemic modeling, effective distance, and empirical validation to pinpoint epidemic origins and universal spread patterns.

Findings

Identified the epidemic source and initiation time using minimal data.

Discovered a universal contagion geometric pattern independent of disease type.

Validated the framework with COVID-19 and H1N1 data.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework that governs the evolution of epidemic dynamics, encompassing both intra-population dynamics and inter-population mobility within a metapopulation network. By linearizing this dynamical system, we can identify the spatial starting point(s), namely the source(s) (A) and the initiation time (B) of any epidemic, which we refer to as the "Big Bang" of the epidemic. Furthermore, we introduce a novel concept of effective distance to track disease spread within the network. Our analysis reveals that the contagion geometry can be represented as a line with a universal slope, independent of disease type (R0) or mobility network configuration. The mathematical derivations presented in this framework are corroborated by empirical data, including observations from the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran and the US, as well as the H1N1 outbreak worldwide. Within this framework, in order to detect the Big Bang of an epidemic we require two types of data: A) A snapshot of the active infected cases in each subpopulation during the linear phase. B) A coarse-grained representation of inter-population mobility. Also even with access to only type A data, we can still demonstrate the universal contagion geometric pattern. Additionally, we can estimate errors and assess the precision of the estimations. This comprehensive approach enhances our understanding of when and where epidemics began and how they spread, and equips us with valuable insights for developing effective public health policies and mitigating the impact of infectious diseases on populations worldwide.