Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 from the ratio of sunspot number to sunspot-group area, low latitude activity, and 130-year solar cycle

TL;DR

This study analyzes historical sunspot data to predict that Solar Cycle 25 will be larger than the previous cycle, estimating its amplitude around 135 with a maximum around March 2024, based on long-term solar activity patterns.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new method combining sunspot number and area data to forecast solar cycle amplitudes, revealing long-term periodicities influencing cycle strength predictions.

Findings

Solar Cycle 25 predicted to be larger than Cycle 24

Amplitude of Cycle 25 estimated around 135

Maximum activity expected around March 2024

Abstract

We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977-2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean whole sphere sunspot-group area (WSGA). We have also analysed the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean version 2 of international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017. We fitted the annual mean WSGA and SN data during each of Solar Cycles 12-24 separately to the linear and nonlinear (parabola) forms. In the cases of Solar Cycles 14, 17, and 24 the nonlinear fits are found better than the linear fits. We find that there exists a secular decreasing trend in the slope of the WSGA-SN linear relation during Solar Cycles 12-24. A secular decreasing trend is also seen in the coefficient of the first order term of the nonlinear relation. The existence of ~77-year variation is seen in the ratio of the amplitude to WSGA at the maximum epoch of solar cycle. From the pattern of this long-term variation of the ratio we inferred that Solar Cycle 25 will be larger than both Solar Cycles 24 and 26. Using an our earlier method (now slightly revised) we predicted 127 (plus or minus 26) and 141 (plus or minus 19) for the amplitude of Solar Cycle~25. Based on ~130-year periodicity found in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 12-24 we find the shape of Solar Cycle 25 would be similar to that of Solar Cycle 13 and predicted for Solar Cycle 25 the amplitude 135 (plus or minus 8), maximum epoch 2024.21 (March 2024) plus or minus 6-month, and end epoch 2032.21 (March 2032) plus or minus 6-month with SN ~4.