Leverage Multi-source Traffic Demand Data Fusion with Transformer Model for Urban Parking Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel Transformer-based framework that fuses multi-source traffic demand data to improve urban parking availability prediction accuracy, addressing limitations of existing methods by capturing spatial-temporal correlations.

Contribution

It proposes a multi-source data fusion approach combined with a Transformer model and clustering to enhance parking prediction accuracy over traditional models.

Findings

Transformer model outperforms other machine learning models in accuracy metrics.

Multi-source data fusion improves prediction reliability.

Clustering effectively captures parking lot zones and flow patterns.

Abstract

The escalation in urban private car ownership has worsened the urban parking predicament, necessitating effective parking availability prediction for urban planning and management. However, the existing prediction methods suffer from low prediction accuracy with the lack of spatial-temporal correlation features related to parking volume, and neglect of flow patterns and correlations between similar parking lots within certain areas. To address these challenges, this study proposes a parking availability prediction framework integrating spatial-temporal deep learning with multi-source data fusion, encompassing traffic demand data from multiple sources (e.g., metro, bus, taxi services), and parking lot data. The framework is based on the Transformer as the spatial-temporal deep learning model and leverages K-means clustering to establish parking cluster zones, extracting and integrating traffic demand characteristics from various transportation modes (i.e., metro, bus, online ride-hailing, and taxi) connected to parking lots. Real-world empirical data was used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with different machine learning, deep learning, and traditional statistical models for predicting parking availability. Experimental results reveal that, with the proposed pipeline, the developed Transformer model outperforms other models in terms of various metrics, e.g., Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). By fusing multi-source demanding data with spatial-temporal deep learning techniques, this approach offers the potential to develop parking availability prediction systems that furnish more accurate and timely information to both drivers and urban planners, thereby fostering more efficient and sustainable urban mobility.