New Trends on the Systems Approach to Modeling SARS-CoV-2 Pandemics in a Globally Connected Planet

TL;DR

This paper critically analyzes and discusses new mathematical modeling approaches for SARS-CoV-2 pandemics, emphasizing multiscale dynamics, transportation networks, and social factors to improve epidemic understanding and decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive perspective on modeling COVID-19 by integrating complexity features and multiscale dynamics beyond traditional deterministic models.

Findings

Highlights importance of multiscale modeling in epidemics

Emphasizes role of transportation networks and heterogeneity

Suggests new mathematical tools for epidemic analysis

Abstract

This paper presents a critical analysis of the literature and perspective research ideas for modeling the epidemics caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It goes beyond deterministic population dynamics to consider several key complexity features of the system under consideration. In particular, the multiscale features of the dynamics from contagion to the subsequent dynamics of competition between the immune system and the proliferating virus. Other topics addressed in this work include the propagation of epidemics in a territory, taking into account local transportation networks, the heterogeneity of the population, and the study of social and economic problems in populations involved in the spread of epidemics. The overall content aims to show how new mathematical tools can be developed to address the above topics and how mathematical models and simulations can contribute to the decision making of crisis managers.