News ecosystem dynamics: Supply, Demand, Diffusion, and the role of Disinformation

TL;DR

This paper models the news ecosystem as an information market using metrics like Supply, Demand, and Diffusion, revealing the strategic role of Demand and the clustering of disinformation across social media, with implications for real-time disinformation assessment.

Contribution

It introduces a novel framework analyzing the news ecosystem through key metrics and validates their relations and roles, especially highlighting disinformation dynamics in Italy.

Findings

Disinformation clusters among social media platforms.

Demand influences the causal network of news dynamics.

Disinformation share correlates linearly with Demand-Supply gap.

Abstract

The digital age provides new challenges as information travels more quickly in a system of increasing complexity. But it also offers new opportunities, as we can track and study the system more efficiently. Several studies individually addressed different digital tracks, focusing on specific aspects like disinformation production or content-sharing dynamics. In this work, we propose to study the news ecosystem as an information market by analysing three main metrics: Supply, Demand, and Diffusion of information. Working on a dataset relative to Italy from December 2019 to August 2020, we validate the choice of the metrics, proving their static and dynamic relations, and their potential in describing the whole system. We demonstrate that these metrics have specific equilibrium relative levels. We reveal the strategic role of Demand in leading a non-trivial network of causal relations. We show how disinformation news Supply and Diffusion seem to cluster among different social media platforms. Disinformation also appears to be closer to information Demand than the general news Supply and Diffusion, implying a potential danger to the health of the public debate. Finally, we prove that the share of disinformation in the Supply and Diffusion of news has a significant linear relation with the gap between Demand and Supply/Diffusion of news from all sources. This finding allows for a real-time assessment of disinformation share in the system. It also gives a glimpse of the potential future developments in the modelisation of the news ecosystem as an information market studied through its main drivers.