Revisiting the Resource Curse in the Age of Energy Transition: Cobalt Reserves and Conflict in Africa

TL;DR

This paper challenges traditional views by showing that cobalt reserves in Africa are linked to reduced local conflict due to increased government security, offering new insights into resource-related conflict dynamics amid energy transition.

Contribution

It provides a novel analysis of cobalt's impact on conflict, highlighting security measures over economic benefits as the key factor, which differs from prior focus on high-value minerals.

Findings

Cobalt-rich regions see less conflict due to security improvements.

Government security measures increase independently of cobalt's economic value.

Causal link established between cobalt deposits and conflict reduction.

Abstract

This study reevaluates the traditional understanding of the "political resource curse" by examining the unique impact of energy transition metals, specifically cobalt, on local-level conflicts in Africa. Contrary to previous studies that primarily focus on high-value minerals and their political outcomes resulted from substantial economic revenues, this study investigates cobalt's influence on local conflict. Despite its strategic importance, cobalt's limited commercial value presents a unique yet critical case for analysis. Different with the prevailing view that links mineral reserves with increased conflict, this research finds that regions rich in cobalt experience a reduction in conflict. This decrease is attributed to enhanced government security measures, which are implemented independently of the economic benefits derived from cobalt as a commodity. The study utilizes a combination of georeferenced data and a difference-in-difference design to analyze the causal relationship between cobalt deposits and regional conflict. The findings suggest that the presence of cobalt deposits leads to enhanced security interventions by governments, effectively reducing the likelihood of non-governmental actors taking control of these territories. This pattern offers a new perspective on the role of energy transition metals in shaping conflict and governance, highlighting the need to reassess theoretical frameworks related to the political implications of natural resources with the ongoing energy revolution.