Characterizing Public Debt Cycles: Don't Ignore the Impact of Financial Cycles

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how various financial cycles, including credit, house prices, and equity prices, influence the duration and size of public debt cycles in advanced and emerging economies, highlighting significant differences and policy implications.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the differential impacts of multiple financial cycles on public debt dynamics across diverse economies.

Findings

Credit cycles in EMs shorten debt contraction durations

Fast credit growth in AEs prolong debt expansions

House and equity price cycles significantly affect debt cycles in EMs

Abstract

Based on the quarterly data from 26 advanced economies (AEs) and 18 emerging market economies (EMs) over the past two decades, this paper estimates the short- and medium-term impacts of financial cycles on the duration and amplitude of public debt cycles. The results indicate that public debt expansions are larger than their contractions in duration and amplitude, aligning with the "deficit bias hypothesis" and being more pronounced in EMs than in AEs. The impacts of various financial cycles are different. Specifically, credit cycles in EMs significantly impact the duration and amplitude of public debt cycles. Notably, short- and medium-term credit booms in EMs shorten the duration of public debt contractions and reduce the amplitude. Fast credit growth in AEs prolongs the duration of public debt expansions and increases the amplitude. However, credit cycles in AEs show no significant impact. For house price cycles, the overall impact is stronger in EMs than in AEs, differing between short- and medium-term cycles. Finally, the impact of equity price cycles is significant in the short term, but not in the medium term. Equity price busts are more likely to prolong the expansion of public debt in EMs while increasing the amplitude of public debt contractions in AEs. Uncovering the impacts of multiple financial cycles on public debt cycles provides implications for better debt policies under different financial conditions.