Learning World Models With Hierarchical Temporal Abstractions: A Probabilistic Perspective

TL;DR

This paper introduces probabilistic hierarchical world models with temporal abstractions, addressing limitations of existing models, and demonstrates their effectiveness in robotic prediction tasks, aligning with neuroscience theories.

Contribution

Proposes Hidden-Parameter and Multi-Time Scale SSMs for scalable, uncertainty-aware hierarchical world modeling, advancing beyond traditional state space models.

Findings

Models outperform transformer variants in long-range predictions

Effective probabilistic inference via belief propagation

Aligns with neuroscience theories like Bayesian brain hypothesis

Abstract

Machines that can replicate human intelligence with type 2 reasoning capabilities should be able to reason at multiple levels of spatio-temporal abstractions and scales using internal world models. Devising formalisms to develop such internal world models, which accurately reflect the causal hierarchies inherent in the dynamics of the real world, is a critical research challenge in the domains of artificial intelligence and machine learning. This thesis identifies several limitations with the prevalent use of state space models (SSMs) as internal world models and propose two new probabilistic formalisms namely Hidden-Parameter SSMs and Multi-Time Scale SSMs to address these drawbacks. The structure of graphical models in both formalisms facilitates scalable exact probabilistic inference using belief propagation, as well as end-to-end learning via backpropagation through time. This approach permits the development of scalable, adaptive hierarchical world models capable of representing nonstationary dynamics across multiple temporal abstractions and scales. Moreover, these probabilistic formalisms integrate the concept of uncertainty in world states, thus improving the system's capacity to emulate the stochastic nature of the real world and quantify the confidence in its predictions. The thesis also discuss how these formalisms are in line with related neuroscience literature on Bayesian brain hypothesis and predicitive processing. Our experiments on various real and simulated robots demonstrate that our formalisms can match and in many cases exceed the performance of contemporary transformer variants in making long-range future predictions. We conclude the thesis by reflecting on the limitations of our current models and suggesting directions for future research.