Evaluating Advanced Nuclear Fission Technologies for Future Decarbonized Power Grids

TL;DR

This study assesses the economic viability of advanced nuclear fission reactors for future decarbonized U.S. power grids, identifying cost targets, design factors, and policy influences that impact their market potential.

Contribution

It provides a quantitative analysis of cost thresholds and design considerations for advanced reactors within a future decarbonized grid, guiding innovation and policy decisions.

Findings

Advanced reactors should cost $5.7-$7.3/W for initial market entry.

Thermal storage in reactors can increase acceptable costs to $6.0-$7.7/W.

Investment tax credits significantly improve market prospects for advanced nuclear.

Abstract

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost \$5.7-\$7.3/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5-6.5% real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to \$6.0-\$7.7/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall 32% at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and 51% at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. These findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.