Comparative Analysis on Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Forecasting Using Machine Learning Techniques

TL;DR

This study demonstrates that a deep learning model based on Temporal Convolutional Networks significantly outperforms traditional machine learning models in snowmelt-driven streamflow forecasting in the Himalayan region.

Contribution

The paper introduces a novel application of TCN for snowmelt streamflow forecasting and compares its performance with other popular models, showing its superior accuracy.

Findings

TCN achieved the lowest MAE and RMSE among tested models.

The deep learning approach outperformed traditional machine learning methods.

Results indicate TCN's potential for hydrological modeling applications.

Abstract

The rapid advancement of machine learning techniques has led to their widespread application in various domains including water resources. However, snowmelt modeling remains an area that has not been extensively explored. In this study, we propose a state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning sequential model, leveraging the Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), for snowmelt-driven discharge modeling in the Himalayan basin of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we conducted a comparative analysis with other popular models including Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and Transformer. Furthermore, Nested cross-validation (CV) is used with five outer folds and three inner folds, and hyper-parameter tuning is performed on the inner folds. To evaluate the performance of the model mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), R square ($R^{2}$), Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) are computed for each outer fold. The average metrics revealed that TCN outperformed the other models, with an average MAE of 0.011, RMSE of 0.023, $R^{2}$ of 0.991, KGE of 0.992, and NSE of 0.991. The findings of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the deep learning model as compared to traditional machine learning approaches for snowmelt-driven streamflow forecasting. Moreover, the superior performance of TCN highlights its potential as a promising deep learning model for similar hydrological applications.