Quantifying seasonal hydrogen storage demands under cost and market uptake uncertainties in energy system transformation pathways

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the uncertainties in hydrogen storage costs and market uptake, emphasizing the importance of rapid infrastructure planning for Europe's energy transition to achieve climate goals by 2050.

Contribution

It links energy system and gas market models to quantify hydrogen infrastructure needs and uncertainties in Europe's decarbonization pathways.

Findings

Extensive hydrogen infrastructure development is necessary beyond existing methane systems.

Uncertainties in storage costs and market restrictions significantly impact infrastructure planning.

Rapid construction of hydrogen storage and pipelines is crucial for meeting 2050 targets.

Abstract

Climate neutrality paradigms put electricity systems at the core of a clean energy supply. At the same time, indirect electrification, with a potential uptake of hydrogen or derived fuel economy, plays a crucial role in decarbonising the energy supply and industrial processes. Besides energy markets coordinating the transition, climate and energy policy targets require fundamental changes and expansions in the energy transmission, import, distribution, and storage infrastructures. While existing studies identify relevant demands for hydrogen, critical decisions involve imports versus domestic fuel production and investments in new or repurposing existing pipeline and storage infrastructure. Linking the pan-European energy system planning model SCOPE SD with the multiperiod European gas market model IMAGINE, the case study analysis and its transformation pathway results indicate extensive network development of hydrogen infrastructure, including expansion beyond refurbished methane infrastructure. However, the ranges of future hydrogen storage costs and market uptake restrictions expose and quantify the uncertainty of its role in Europes transformation. The study finds that rapidly planning the construction of hydrogen storage and pipeline infrastructure is crucial to achieving the required capacity by 2050.