Advancing Long-Term Multi-Energy Load Forecasting with Patchformer: A Patch and Transformer-Based Approach

TL;DR

Patchformer is a novel Transformer-based model that improves long-term multi-energy load forecasting by using patch embedding to better capture complex temporal dependencies, outperforming existing models on multiple datasets.

Contribution

The paper introduces Patchformer, a new model that effectively captures local and global dependencies in long-term multi-energy forecasting using patch embedding within a Transformer architecture.

Findings

Patchformer achieves higher prediction accuracy on multiple datasets.

Interdependence among energy products enhances forecasting performance.

Model performance improves with longer past sequences.

Abstract

In the context of increasing demands for long-term multi-energy load forecasting in real-world applications, this paper introduces Patchformer, a novel model that integrates patch embedding with encoder-decoder Transformer-based architectures. To address the limitation in existing Transformer-based models, which struggle with intricate temporal patterns in long-term forecasting, Patchformer employs patch embedding, which predicts multivariate time-series data by separating it into multiple univariate data and segmenting each of them into multiple patches. This method effectively enhances the model's ability to capture local and global semantic dependencies. The numerical analysis shows that the Patchformer obtains overall better prediction accuracy in both multivariate and univariate long-term forecasting on the novel Multi-Energy dataset and other benchmark datasets. In addition, the positive effect of the interdependence among energy-related products on the performance of long-term time-series forecasting across Patchformer and other compared models is discovered, and the superiority of the Patchformer against other models is also demonstrated, which presents a significant advancement in handling the interdependence and complexities of long-term multi-energy forecasting. Lastly, Patchformer is illustrated as the only model that follows the positive correlation between model performance and the length of the past sequence, which states its ability to capture long-range past local semantic information.