Classifying binary black holes from Population III stars with the Einstein Telescope: A machine-learning approach

TL;DR

This paper presents a machine-learning method to classify high-redshift binary black hole mergers detected by the Einstein Telescope as originating from Population III stars, addressing uncertainties in their identification.

Contribution

It introduces a novel machine-learning framework combining Fisher matrix parameter estimation and XGBoost classification to distinguish Pop. III BBHs from Pop. I-II at high redshift.

Findings

Successfully classifies over 10% of Pop. III BBHs with >90% precision.

Demonstrates machine learning's potential in high-redshift GW source origin determination.

Provides a foundation for future population and uncertainty modeling studies.

Abstract

Third-generation (3G) gravitational-wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) will observe binary black hole (BBH) mergers at redshifts up to $z\sim 100$. However, an unequivocal determination of the origin of high-redshift sources will remain uncertain because of the low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and poor estimate of their luminosity distance. This study proposes a machine-learning approach to infer the origins of high-redshift BBHs. We specifically differentiate those arising from Population III (Pop. III) stars, which probably are the first progenitors of star-born BBH mergers in the Universe, and those originated from Population I-II (Pop. I-II) stars. We considered a wide range of models that encompass the current uncertainties on Pop. III BBH mergers. We then estimated the parameter errors of the detected sources with ET using the Fisher information-matrix formalism, followed by a classification using XGBoost, which is a machine-learning algorithm based on decision trees. For a set of mock observed BBHs, we provide the probability that they belong to the Pop. III class while considering the parameter errors of each source. In our fiducial model, we accurately identify $\gtrsim 10\%$ of the detected BBHs that originate from Pop. III stars with a precision $>90\%$. Our study demonstrates that machine-learning enables us to achieve some pivotal aspects of the ET science case by exploring the origin of individual high-redshift GW observations. We set the basis for further studies, which will integrate additional simulated populations and account for further uncertainties in the population modeling.