Pseudo P-values for Assessing Covariate Balance in a Finite Study Population with Application to the California Sugar Sweetened Beverage Tax Study

TL;DR

This paper introduces pseudo p-values as a new descriptive tool for assessing covariate balance in finite study populations, demonstrated through a California SSB tax case study.

Contribution

It presents the concept of pseudo p-values, discusses their theoretical properties, and provides an algorithm for their calculation in finite population studies.

Findings

Pseudo p-values effectively assess covariate balance.

Application to California SSB study shows practical utility.

Simulation demonstrates reliable performance of the method.

Abstract

Assessing covariate balance (CB) is a common practice in various types of evaluation studies. Two-sample descriptive statistics, such as the standardized mean difference, have been widely applied in the scientific literature to assess the goodness of CB. Studies in health policy, health services research, built and social environment research, and many other fields often involve a finite number of units that may be subject to different treatment levels. Our case study, the California Sugar Sweetened Beverage (SSB) Tax Study, include 332 study cities in the state of California, among which individual cities may elect to levy a city-wide excise tax on SSB sales. Evaluating the balance of covariates between study cities with and without the tax policy is essential for assessing the effects of the policy on health outcomes of interest. In this paper, we introduce the novel concepts of the pseudo p-value and the standardized pseudo p-value, which are descriptive statistics to assess the overall goodness of CB between study arms in a finite study population. While not meant as a hypothesis test, the pseudo p-values bear superficial similarity to the classic p-value, which makes them easy to apply and interpret in applications. We discuss some theoretical properties of the pseudo p-values and present an algorithm to calculate them. We report a numerical simulation study to demonstrate their performance. We apply the pseudo p-values to the California SSB Tax study to assess the balance of city-level characteristics between the two study arms.