Impact of Employing Weather Forecast Data as Input to the Estimation of Evapotranspiration by Deep Neural Network Models

TL;DR

This study evaluates deep neural network models for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ET0) using weather forecast data, focusing on the impact of forecasted solar radiation and comparing direct estimation versus indirect methods.

Contribution

It assesses the performance of ET0 estimation models using weather forecast data from online sources, including solar radiation forecasts, which is less explored in prior research.

Findings

Best model achieved R2 between 0.893 and 0.667 for 15-day forecasts.

Using forecasted solar radiation improves ET0 estimation accuracy.

Indirect estimation via solar radiation forecast is effective for ET0 prediction.

Abstract

Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key parameter for designing smart irrigation scheduling, since it is related by a coefficient to the water needs of a crop. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, proposed a standard method for ET0 computation (FAO56PM), based on the parameterization of the Penman-Monteith equation, that is widely adopted in the literature. To compute ET0 using the FAO56-PM method, four main weather parameters are needed: temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation (SR). One way to make daily ET0 estimations for future days is to use freely available weather forecast services (WFSs), where many meteorological parameters are estimated up to the next 15 days. A problem with this method is that currently, SR is not provided as a free forecast parameter on most of those online services or, normally, such forecasts present a financial cost penalty. For this reason, several ET0 estimation models using machine and deep learning were developed and presented in the literature, that use as input features a reduced set of carefully selected weather parameters, that are compatible with common freely available WFSs. However, most studies on this topic have only evaluated model performance using data from weather stations (WSs), without considering the effect of using weather forecast data. In this study, the performance of authors' previous models is evaluated when using weather forecast data from two online WFSs, in the following scenarios: (i) direct ET0 estimation by an ANN model, and (ii) estimate SR by ANN model, and then use that estimation for ET0 computation, using the FAO56-PM method. Employing data collected from two WFSs and a WS located in Vale do Lobo, Portugal, the latter approach achieved the best result, with a coefficient of determination (R2) ranging between 0.893 and 0.667, when considering forecasts up to 15 days.