The recessionary pressures of generative AI: A threat to wellbeing

TL;DR

This paper examines how excessive reliance on generative AI could trigger economic recessionary pressures, threaten societal wellbeing, and emphasizes the need for proactive policies to foster a sustainable, inclusive future.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of an AI-capital-to-labour ratio threshold that could lead to recessionary cycles and offers policy recommendations to mitigate these risks.

Findings

Identifies a threshold beyond which AI-driven automation may cause economic instability.

Highlights risks of increased social disparities and reduced social cohesion due to AI.

Recommends proactive regulatory and social policies to ensure economic resilience.

Abstract

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands as a transformative force that presents a paradox; it offers unprecedented opportunities for productivity growth while potentially posing significant threats to economic stability and societal wellbeing. Many consider generative AI as akin to previous technological advancements, using historical precedent to argue that fears of widespread job displacement are unfounded, while others contend that generative AI`s unique capacity to undertake non-routine cognitive tasks sets it apart from other forms of automation capital and presents a threat to the quality and availability of work that underpin stable societies. This paper explores the conditions under which both may be true. We posit the existence of an AI-capital-to-labour ratio threshold beyond which a self-reinforcing cycle of recessionary pressures could be triggered, exacerbating social disparities, reducing social cohesion, heightening tensions, and requiring sustained government intervention to maintain stability. To prevent this, the paper underscores the urgent need for proactive policy responses, making recommendations to reduce these risks through robust regulatory frameworks and a new social contract characterised by progressive social and economic policies. This approach aims to ensure a sustainable, inclusive, and resilient economic future where human contribution to the economy is retained and integrated with generative AI to enhance the Mental Wealth of nations.